2055

% Change in Generation ^^^ 10 to 15 | | 5 to 10 ^^^ 0 to 5 | | -5 to 0

FIG. 5.5.2 Changes in electric generation by state induced by climate change to 2055. (Reprinted from J.B. Smith and D.A. Tirpak, 1988, The potential effects of global climate change on the United States, Washington, D.C.: U.S. EPA [October].)

which shorten a crop's life cycle (Smith and Tirpak 1988). In contrast, in northern areas such as Minnesota, dryland yields of corn and soybeans could double as warmer temperatures extend the frost-free growing season. Crop acreage could decrease by 5 to 25% in Appalachia, the southeast, and the southern Great Plains areas; conversely, acreage could increase by 5 to 17% in the northern Great Lakes states, the northern Great Plains, and the Pacific northwest areas (Smith and Tirpak 1988). Irrigation would probably increase in many areas because irrigated yields are more stable than dry-land yields under conditions of increased heat stress and reduced precipitation.

Climate-sensitive electric end uses include space heating and cooling and, to a lesser degree, water heating and refrigeration. Summer cooling electric demands would increase, while winter heating demands would decrease. As a result of climate change, annual electric demands are expected to increase by 4 to 6% by the year 2055. Figure 5.5.2 summarizes regional demand changes. Additional power plants will be required to meet peak demands.

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