Example 3620

An engineer is attempting to update the reliability analysis of a miter gate on a navigation lock to justify a major rehabilitation. The miter gate is supported by vertically framed steel beams that are corroding over time. Separate deterioration models were used for the atmospheric zone of the gate, which is only exposed to the air, and the splash zone, which is exposed to raising and lowering of the water in the lock chamber. The predicted values for the mean and standard deviation of the thickness loss (in mm) after 50 years based on the deterioration models for the atmospheric zone are m = 298 and a = 197, respectively. The splash zone is expected to corrode much faster, and its 50-year predicted loss is m = 5,085 and a = 1,301. The miter gate undergoes a periodic visual inspection. With some conservative assumptions, these visual inspections are converted to probabilistic quantities (Estes et al. 2004). The inspection results reveal that the actual section loss is m = 285 and a = 151 and was about the same in both the splash zone and the atmospheric zone. What updated values for section loss will be used in the updated reliability analysis?

Answer

For the atmospheric zone, the posterior distribution is characterized by m'' = 285(197)2 + 298(151)2 = 290

For the atmospheric zone, the posterior distribution is characterized by

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