Establish realistic baselines. Identify variables and their interactions. Identify competing or complementing processes that will subtract from measure savings. Reduce the number variables to simplify analysis. Treat uncertainties with contingencies, by either inflating the baseline or de-rating the savings. With the baseline established, use experience to evaluate calculated savings as percent of total expenses. Use all these indicators as sanity checks to avoid over-stating savings. After project completion, get after-the-fact measurements where possible to compare actual to estimated savings; collecting this real data will allow improved estimating and reduced contingencies over time.

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